July 22, 2016: Energy Matters: Conventional

Courtesy of American Energy Society and Eric Vettel.

Petroleum

- It's been a while, but it appears as if the global oil market is almost balanced. Production is slowing while demand is rising. AES Premium Members have access to the IEA report. 

- On the supply side, some Saudi Arabian and other Middle Eastern producers are now pumping oil for less than $10 a barrel. On the demand side, India is the "world’s growth leader of oil consumption" - up 8.3 percent from the same period last year. (Note: China's demand is rising at the second fastest rate, 3.3 percent.) 

Natural Gas

- Natural gas generates about 34% of all electricity in the US; coal has a 30% share; nuclear and renewables come in at 19% and 15%, respectively. After 2016, renewables will have an increasingly larger role in the energy mix, while natural gas generation will shrink due in part to rising prices of NG. AES Premium Members have access to the early release of the EIA Energy Outlook 2016.

Coal

- There are about 13,000 coal mines in operation in the US. The US Mine Safety and Health Administration did not identify any mines for a "pattern of violations" in 2015 ... the first time there were no citations issued in a very long time. 

 - Korea is building a series of new coal-fired power plants.

Nuclear

- South Carolina Electric & Gas Co. is asking state regulators for $852 million more to complete the VC Summer 2 and 3 nuclear units (making it a $14 billion project). The primary reason for the request is that management decided to replace the contractor of the project.

IESO Regulation Service: Interesting!

On June 22, the Independent Electricity System Operator (“IESO”) tendered a Regulation Service Request for Information (“RFI”).  This service has historically been provided by conventional generators under capacity based ancillary services contracts.  The IESO has recently contracted energy storage facilities to provide regulation service under both the Alternative Technologies for Regulation (“ATR”) Request for Proposals (“RFP”) and the Phase 1 Energy Storage RFP.

This RFI represents a step in reforming the process for procuring regulation services in Ontario.  This opens up the possibility for the development of a regulation services market, similar to what is used in many US jurisdictions.  The RFI specifically references FERC Order 755 which addresses how providers of regulation services are to be compensated – i.e. on a pay-for-performance basis.  FERC Order 755 favours regulation service providers which are capable of responding quickly and accurately to control signals such as some types energy storage facilities.

June 20, 2016: Energy Matters: Renewables

Courtesy of American Energy Society and Eric Vettel.

 - Featured story: The 2016 Bloomberg New Energy Finance market forecast report has been released; here is a summary of the five most important points:

   * Clean energy investments are outpacing gas and coal 2 to 1;

   * There will be no golden age for gas, except in North America;

   * Wind and solar power will reach about 60% of installed capacity worldwide in the next 25 years; 

   * Cumulatively, clean power will explode, but the amount of power from sources that produce greenhouse gases will remain steady;

   * The climate fight will be won or lost in India.

 - The 65th BP Statistical Review of World Energy has also been released. Perhaps the most compelling of its many points: global energy consumption is expected to increase by 34% between 2014 and 2035. AES Premium Members have access to this report.

 - If current trends continue, the US solar industry will install 14.5 gigawatts of capacity in 2016, about double the 7.5 gigawatts capacity installed in 2015. As a comparison, 1 gigawatt is the equivalent amount of power produced by: 400 wind turbines, 1 nuclear power plant, 1,500,000 horses, or 1 lightning bolt. (Note: for the first time, solar accounts for a majority of new power generation.) 

 - The DoE has selected three offshore wind projects to fund (Atlantic City, NJ; Lake Erie; Maine) and withdrew its support for two others (Virginia Beach and Oregon). As a result, Dominion Virginia Power lost $40 million in federal money to help build a wind turbine demonstration project. The rumor in Richmond is that Dominion isn't terribly upset: no one wanted a construction project close to the naval military base; and, Dominion tends to prefer solar over wind.

 - Hydroelectric generation across the western US is on the rise as the region's protracted drought conditions improve.

June 20, 2016: Energy Matters: Conventional

Courtesy of American Energy Society and Eric Vettel.

Petroleum

- The number of oil rigs in the US rose by 3 to 328; the number of gas rigs rose by 3 to 85. This brings the total active rig count to 413. This is the first time rig-counts have risen two weeks in a row in about a year. (Note: in January 2015 there were 635 active oil rigs and 221 gas rigs.)

 - Assuming no further surprises, oil markets appear to have balanced. However, there are about 50 US-based oil drillers that are in bankruptcy and yet have not slowed down their production. The phenomenon makes sense at the micro-level; given that creditors want to be paid, they expect drillers to continue to produce. At the macro level, however, zombie producers are the primary force that is keeping oil markets off-balance.

 - The decline of oil prices had its greatest impact on Vnesheconombank, Russia's largest bank and the one that Vladimir Putin used to finance mega-projects like the Sochi Olympics and his secret aid to Russian loyalists in Ukraine. The VEB has stopped new lending, cut off financing, and requires government emergency assistance to avoid default.

 Natural Gas

 - For the first time since 1957, exports of US natural gas will outstrip imports in a shift that could occur as soon as the end of this year.

 - In a recent survey of energy executives from all sectors, 92 percent said they expect natural gas prices to stay below $3/MMBtu in 2016.

 Coal

 - To raise cash amid an unprecedented downturn in the global coal sector, non-US coal producers have placed $1.23 billion of coal assets on the market in the last year.

   1st place: Australia - $757 mm, or about 61.5% of the total

   2nd place: Poland  - $585 mm, or about 33% of the total

   3rd place: Canada  -  $34 mm, or about 2.7% of the total

 Nuclear

 - The Tennessee Valley Authority's Watts Bar nuclear plant has been synced to the grid and will next undergo systems and controls testing. The plant will supply power to roughly 1.3 million homes in the TVA service area. This is the first nuclear reactor to come online in about two decades. 

June 6, 2016: Energy Matters: Climate

- Track failure was likely the cause of the Union-Pacific oil train that derailed alongside of and into the Columbia River about 70 miles east of Portland, Oregon.  

 - The Earth’s eight warmest months on record have occurred in the last eight months.

 - A cloud of secondary organic aerosols — air pollution - sits above the Alberta oil sands, an amount that often exceeds the total emissions of Canada’s largest cities. 

 - Trees in California's Sierra Nevada mountain range (pines, firs, aspen, redwoods, etc.) are shifting to higher elevations in search of cooler temperatures. Coral species in the Great Barrier Reef are moving to deeper waters to try to avoid mass bleaching and die-out.  

 - In recent years, in the Southern Louisiana archipelego, the Isle de Jean Charles Band of the Biloxi-Chitimacha-Choctaw Tribe has lost 98 percent of its land to the rising Gulf waters. Of the 22,400-acre island, only a 320-acre strip remains. The US HUD is giving the tribe $48 million to relocate.

 - The UN’s flagship Green Climate Fund will miss its target to approve $2.5 billion of new projects because there haven't been enough applications submitted.

 Courtesty of The American Energy Society and Eric Vettel.

June 6, 2016: Energy Matters: Conventional

Oil

  AES expert members, including Daniel Yergin, believe that $50/barrel is here to stay.  

 - One reason oil climbed to $50/barrel is because a group of privately owned Chinese refineries— dubbed “teapots” because they're small compared with state-owned companies—have been granted unprecedented authority by the Chinese government to make private and direct purchases of crude oil on the open market. Their activities are driving the global market, and oil tankers line up sometimes for weeks to deliver the crude oil. Teapots now account for 15% of China's crude imports.

 - Another reason why oil prices have climbed to the $50/barrel range - the "Niger Delta Avengers" have blown up a series of Chevron wells, a Shell terminal, and sections of the AGIP pipeline operated by Eni, the Italian oil company, reducing the global supply by more than one million barrels/day. 

 Gas

- The LNG export market is becoming highly competitive. In two or three years, new pipelines currently under construction will become operational in Azerbaijan, Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, Pakistan, Afghanistan and India.  

 - FERC has approved the Kinder Morgan LNG export terminal project on Elba Island near Savannah, Georgia. This is the first of 10 liquefaction units to be built by Kinder Morgan; the units will be operational in the second quarter of 2018.

 Coal

 - Top publicly financed international coal projects (by nation; $42 billion total investments in 2015)

1. Japan: $22 billion (or 52 percent of the total)

2. Germany: $9 billion

3. United States: $4 billion

4. France: $3 billion

Note: In 2015, the G7 agreed to begin phasing out domestic coal.

 - The US coal industry employs about 90,000 miners, of which 12,000 are in West Virginia.

 Nuclear

 - The Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) has submitted an application to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission to build a small modular nuclear reactor (SMR) - more evidence that smaller and cheaper nuclear units are on the rise.

 Courtesty of The American Energy Society and Eric Vettel.

June 6, 2016: Energy Matters: Renewables

- Breaking news: Rumors about Apple - in Cupertino and in the media - the company is following Tesla and Nissan into the EV and/or home battery market(s).  Called "Project Titan," the company is hiring engineers, creating new software programs, exploring charging infrastructure, etc.

 - Low coal, oil and gas prices are beginning to attract investors' capital, pulling it away from long-term clean energy projects; on the other hand, oil and gas companies are shifting investments into wind and solar. For instance, Europe's biggest oil companies (Shell, Eni, Total and Statoil), reeling from losing billions in the two-year oil market rout, are intensifying their push into renewable energy for new sources of future revenue. AES Premium Members have access to the IEA report.

 - 6 KiloWatt-hours of electricity is used to refine one gallon of gasoline and drive an EV the same distance as a car using a gallon of gasoline. 

 - Google has expanded Project Sunroof, an online resource that analyzes whether a rooftop is suitable for solar panels, but it is still not available for residents of Texas, Hawaii, Rhode Island, Idaho, South Dakota, Mississippi, Tennessee, Alaska, or the District of Columbia. 

 - What state offers the most generous rebates, incentives and tax breaks to buy an EV?  Colorado.  What state is the leader in wind energy, per capita?  Iowa.

 - For the first time, renewable energy sources (excluding hydroelectricity) generated more than 10% of US electricity in a single month (March 2016), up from 7.7% in the same period a year ago and just 2.6% 10 years ago.

 Courtesty of The American Energy Society and Eric Vettel.

May 24, 2016: Energy Matters: Renewables

Courtesty of Eric Vettel at the American Energy Society (www.energysociety.org )

Renewables

 - Bill Gates speaks often about the need for an "energy miracle," but Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) Chairman Michael Liebreich has made a compelling case that the energy miracle is already here, and they are, in order: solar, wind, LED lighting, electric cars, advance[ing] batteries and smart grids.

 - The US grid added 1,291 megawatts (MW) of new renewable power in the first quarter of 2016: wind (707 MW), solar (522 MW), biomass (33 MW) and hydropower (29 MW). To put these numbers into perspective: natural gas added 18 MW of new generating capacity and no new capacity for coal, oil, or nuclear power.  AES Premium Members have access to the report.

 - Long a niche industry burdened by expensive financing, solar appears on the verge of unlocking cheaper sources of capital. Natural-gas plants are getting financed at about $1.20 per watt, which is considered a benchmark; as a comparison, utility-scale solar plants are going as low as $1.25 per watt in the southeastern US, $1.27 per watt in the southwest, and $1.32 per watt in California. AES Premium Members have access to the full NREL report. 

 - A Saudi-backed consortium is building a solar farm in Dubai for only 3¢/kWh, half the local price of power from natural gas. That price is consistent with bids by Enel Green Power to build a solar plant in Coahuila, Mexico, for 3.6¢/kWh, and an onshore wind farm in Morocco for 3¢/kWh.

 - The Pacific Biofuels plant on the Big Island of Hawaii is the first to be certified as "sustainable."

 - Japan now has more electric car charging stops than gas stations.

 - In the 1970s, Denmark was addicted to oil, burning petroleum to power its cars AND generate electricity. Today, more than 40 percent of the country is powered by wind.

 - Renewable energy production in Germany caused power prices to go negative for several hours, as it has in California and Texas - meaning commercial customers were being paid to consume electricity.

Explainer: 10 ways ‘negative emissions’ could slow climate change

This is from the good people at Carbon Brief Staff. http://www.carbonbrief.org
Original Post ( http://buff.ly/1TnWCKA )

The Paris Agreement, adopted at the COP21 climate talks in December, sets out a global aim to limit average global surface temperatures to “well below 2C” above pre-industrial levels. It adds that there should be “efforts” to limit it to 1.5C.

A study published last year warned that all the scenarios for keeping global temperature rise to 2C require “negative emissions” – removing CO2 from the atmosphere and storing it on land, underground or in the oceans.

Here is a nice graphic summarizing 10 ways to remove emissions.

View fullsize

May 5, 2016: Energy Matters: Climate Change

From Eric Vettel, American Energy Society

Climate

- Featured resource: For the first time ever, the US Geological Survey has mapped human-induced earthquakes. In the past, USGS maps only identified natural earthquake hazards. AES Premium Members have access to this report and maps.

- Featured story: Wealthy countries gave developing countries tens of millions of dollars in aid to help them design and publish their carbon-cutting pledge programs at last year's COP 21 Paris Agreement. Funds were generally used to pay for technical expertise and educational workshops to help the world's poorest, under-resourced governments put together presentable plans.

- The methane gas leak in Southern California's Aliso Canyon has led many US cities to examine their own gas-storage infrastructure. Boston has perhaps the most dangerous system. Researchers looked at 100 randomly selected underground gas leaks across Boston metro: the oldest gas pipe has been in service since 1893; 15 of the 100 leaks are Grade 1-leaks (an immediate explosion hazard); 7 of the 100 leaks are classified as "super-emitters." AES Premium Members have access to the peer-reviewed abstract of the report. 

- According to China, carbon dioxide emissions fell by 1.5 percent last year, leading to a 0.2 percent reduction in global emissions. However, according to researchers at the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO) in Norway, CO2 emissions in China rose 0.5 percent last year. Somebody is wrong.

- There are about 20.5 billion devices connected to the Internet around the world; data centers in the US use around 2 percent of overall energy, or around 100 billion kilowatt-hours of power.

- To combat rising smog levels, Mexico City will require that every car remain off the road for one day each week. Randomly assigned government stickers will identify which days are prohibited.

- 4 billion people live under conditions of "severe water scarcity" at least 1 month a year.
 

- Four new documentary films about the science and consequences of global warming:
     The Ice and the Sky - how meteorological data is collected in Antarctica.
     Planet Sigma - an experimental film useing images to build the script.
     Deep Time - an economic look at climate change, with an emphasis on North Dakota.

     Children of the Arctic - what climate change means for the Iñupiat of the Alaskan tundra.
 

May 5, 2016: Energy Matters: Renewables

Renewables

 - Top 3 developed nations' investment in renewable energy:
   1. China ($102.9 billion USD)
   2. United States ($44.1 billion)
   3. Japan ($36.2 billion)

Top 3 developing nations investment in renewable energy:
   1. India ($10.2 billion - up 22 percent from the previous year)
   2. South Africa ($4.5 billion - up 329 percent)
   3. Mexico ($4 billion - up 105 percent)
(Note: global investments in renewable power projects totaled $266.0 billion last year, which was more than double the $130.0 billion invested in coal and natural gas-fired power plants in 2015.)
 

- The World Bank, the largest provider of public finance to developing countries, is going to spend 28% of its investments on projects related to renewable energy.

- Off-shore wind is common in some parts of Europe; in the US, the first off-shore wind project is under construction off the coast of Rhode Island. Virginia will have the next in Virginia Beach. The next 3 currently under review for permits are: Morro Bay in California, followed by South Carolina, and then New Jersey.

- There are about 2.5 million people in the US working in clean-energy jobs; of that total, about 1.9 million are in jobs related to "efficiency."
 

- In 2016, the solar sector will add more new electricity-generating capacity than any other - including natural gas and wind. Planned installations include 9.5 gigawatts of utility-scale solar, followed by 8 gigawatts of natural gas and 6.8 gigawatts of wind. However, official projections for solar are consistently understated because they only consider large or utility-scale solar arrays and do not account for .

May 5, 2016: Energy Matters: Conventional

From Eric Vettel, American Energy Society

Conventional

Oil

 - On April 17, key OPEC members will meet in Doha, Qatar. The last time OPEC met, November 2014, agreements broke down, Member nations decided to ignore the impact of fracking, and then production rose to an all-time high. Oil markets have been in free-fall ever since. In advance of the upcoming meeting, Saudi Arabia says it will try again to freeze production ... if all other OPEC nations agree, especially Iran.

 - About 15 years ago, the top 5 oil producing nations were:

   5. China (3.39 mb/d)

   4. Iran (3.44 (mb/d)

   3. United States (5.75 mb/d)

   2. Russia (7.41 mb/d)

   1. Saudi Arabia (7.63 mb/d)

Today, the top 5 oil producing nations are:

   5. Canada (4.4 million barrels per day)

   4. China (4.6 mb/d)

   3. Russia (11 mb/d)

   2. Saudi Arabia (11.9 mb/d)

   1. United States (13.7 mb/d)

-  Featured story: Right now, the total number of active rigs in the US is 484 (down 26 from last quarter), with only 32 waiting to spud (down 9). This is the first time the active rig count has fallen below 500 in a long time. Though "rig count" has always been used to measure the health of the oil industry, the introduction of new techniques ("fracking") and more efficient oil production has created a new model in which its importance is unclear.

- The oil crash has hurt oil producers all over the world, but Latin America has been hit the hardest, especially Venezuela and Brazil, which are exporting 100,000 to 200,000 fewer barrels per day; Mexico, Columbia, and Peru have also been hit hard.

Natural Gas

- Featured story: In the last few years, production of natural gas has overwhelmed the existing infrastructure. However, many are beginning to wonder if pipeline developers are moving too quickly to install new infrastructure. The states most at risk for NG infrastructure overdevelopment are: Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. (Note: in 2014, 26 new pipelines were approved for construction; in 2015, 30 more were approved.)

 Coal

  - One of the most accurate ways to project the near-term future of the coal industry in the US is to measure current rail deliveries. Right now, coal deliveries by rail are down - significantly - and future rail-delivery contracts are declining, too.

 - Average amount of coal produced per employee-hour (in tons):

     Central Appalachia: 2.51 tons of coal per employee-hour

     Illinois Basin: 4.98 tons

     Northern Appalachia: 4.36 tons

     Powder River Basin: 29.24 tons (Note: the PRB in Wyoming is primarily a surface mine)

 Nuclear

  - One reason why nuclear power is struggling right now is the high cost to build a reactor. Small modular reactors (SMRs), which are less expensive to build and produce around 300 MW of power (a third of the power of current reactors) are gaining traction as a possible solution. NuScale, a US firm, is preparing to build 12 SMRs for Utah Associated Municipal Power, and the British Royal Navy is planning to place a "large" order with Rolls Royce for SMRs that can power its nuclear submarines. However, it will take about 10 years to complete these orders.

April 15, 2016: Energy Matters: Renewables

Renewables

 - Top 3 developed nations' investment in renewable energy:
   1. China ($102.9 billion USD)
   2. United States ($44.1 billion)
   3. Japan ($36.2 billion)

Top 3 developing nations investment in renewable energy:
   1. India ($10.2 billion - up 22 percent from the previous year)
   2. South Africa ($4.5 billion - up 329 percent)
   3. Mexico ($4 billion - up 105 percent)
(Note: global investments in renewable power projects totaled $266.0 billion last year, which was more than double the $130.0 billion invested in coal and natural gas-fired power plants in 2015.)

- The World Bank, the largest provider of public finance to developing countries, is going to spend 28% of its investments on projects related to renewable energy.

- Off-shore wind is common in some parts of Europe; in the US, the first off-shore wind project is under construction off the coast of Rhode Island. Virginia will have the next in Virginia Beach. The next 3 currently under review for permits are: Morro Bay in California, followed by South Carolina, and then New Jersey.

- There are about 2.5 million people in the US working in clean-energy jobs; of that total, about 1.9 million are in jobs related to "efficiency."

- In 2016, the solar sector will add more new electricity-generating capacity than any other - including natural gas and wind. Planned installations include 9.5 gigawatts of utility-scale solar, followed by 8 gigawatts of natural gas and 6.8 gigawatts of wind. However, official projections for solar are consistently understated because they only consider large or utility-scale solar arrays and do not account for rooftop solar, which is also substantial.

April 15, 2016: Energy Matters: Conventional

From Eric Vettel of American Energy Society:

On April 17, key OPEC members will meet in Doha, Qatar. The last time OPEC met, November 2014, agreements broke down, Member nations decided to ignore the impact of fracking, and then production rose to an all-time high. Oil markets have been in free-fall ever since. In advance of the upcoming meeting, Saudi Arabia says it will try again to freeze production ... if all other OPEC nations agree, especially Iran.

 - About 15 years ago, the top 5 oil producing nations were:

   5. China (3.39 mb/d)

   4. Iran (3.44 (mb/d)

   3. United States (5.75 mb/d)

   2. Russia (7.41 mb/d)

   1. Saudi Arabia (7.63 mb/d)

Today, the top 5 oil producing nations are:

   5. Canada (4.4 million barrels per day)

   4. China (4.6 mb/d)

   3. Russia (11 mb/d)

   2. Saudi Arabia (11.9 mb/d)

   1. United States (13.7 mb/d)

-  Featured story: Right now, the total number of active rigs in the US is 484 (down 26 from last quarter), with only 32 waiting to spud (down 9). This is the first time the active rig count has fallen below 500 in a long time. Though "rig count" has always been used to measure the health of the oil industry, the introduction of new techniques ("fracking") and more efficient oil production has created a new model in which its importance is unclear.

- The oil crash has hurt oil producers all over the world, but Latin America has been hit the hardest, especially Venezuela and Brazil, which are exporting 100,000 to 200,000 fewer barrels per day; Mexico, Columbia, and Peru have also been hit hard

Natural Gas

- Featured story: In the last few years, production of natural gas has overwhelmed the existing infrastructure. However, many are beginning to wonder if pipeline developers are moving too quickly to install new infrastructure. The states most at risk for NG infrastructure overdevelopment are: Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. (Note: in 2014, 26 new pipelines were approved for construction; in 2015, 30 more were approved.)

Coa

- One of the most accurate ways to project the near-term future of the coal industry in the US is to measure current rail deliveries. Right now, coal deliveries by rail are down - significantly - and future rail-delivery contracts are declining, too.

 - Average amount of coal produced per employee-hour (in tons):

•      Central Appalachia: 2.51 tons of coal per employee-hour
•      Illinois Basin: 4.98 tons
•      Northern Appalachia: 4.36 tons
•      Powder River Basin: 29.24 tons (Note: the PRB in Wyoming is primarily a surface mine)

Nuclear

 - One reason why nuclear power is struggling right now is the high cost to build a reactor. Small modular reactors (SMRs), which are less expensive to build and produce around 300 MW of power (a third of the power of current reactors) are gaining traction as a possible solution. NuScale, a US firm, is preparing to build 12 SMRs for Utah Associated Municipal Power, and the British Royal Navy is planning to place a "large" order with Rolls Royce for SMRs that can power its nuclear submarines. However, it will take about 10 years to complete these orders.

March 29, 2016: Energy Matters: Climate

Featured story: Concerns over energy security are spurring branches of the military to get more electricity from renewable sources. But environmental concerns are not a key driver for the DoD, the nation's largest consumer of energy. Instead, military officials say that safer sources of power are needed to enhance national security - a bigger motivation than reducing emissions.

- Featured story: Global greenhouse gas emissions held steady at around 32 billion tons for a second straight year - and it was not tied to an economic downturn.

- The Marshall Institute formed a new non-profit educational organization called the CO2 Coalition that promotes the following ideas:
* more CO2 in the atmosphere will be a net benefit for the world;
* concerns about carbon dioxide being a "pollutant" are not valid;
* climate change is proceeding very slowly;
* the likely increase in temperature for the 21st century has already happened;
* current CO2 levels are far below optimum for the growth of many plants.
AES Premium Members have access to a white paper published by the CO2 Coalition that summarizes its views.

- A new study has found evidence that normal human activity - like animal agriculture, rice cultivation and compost waste disposal - may be contributing more greenhouse gases than the oil and gas industry. AES Premium Members have access to the abstract of this article.

- Concrete is the most widely used synthetic material in the world. For every kilogram of cement produced, around the same amount of CO2 is released into the atmosphere.

- The warming climate has changed the way wine grapes grow - vintners no longer need to rely on late-season heat and drought because temperatures are up already. In the short run, the warmer climate has probably improved wine quality. The bad news: It's not helping all varietals, and the grapes that benefit now probably won't if the climate continues to get warmer.

- Line 5 is an oil pipeline which runs along the bottom of the Straits of Mackinac, connecting Lake Michigan and Lake Huron. It carries more than 500,000 barrels of light crude and natural gas liquids each day. Some wonder if this original pipeline, built in 1953, is still safe.

- Greenland, one of a number of ice floes in the north and south poles, is losing about 287 billion tons of melting ice per year, enough to cause sea levels to rise by about 1 millimeter each year.

- Evan Berry, a professor at American University, is the author of "Devoted to Nature: The Religious Roots of American Environmentalism," an examination of the theological character of American environmental thought. It is a potent corrective to the narrative that religion and environmentalism are separate.

 Courtesy of American Energy Society

March 29, 2016: Energy Matters: US Renewables

- About 8.8 percent of the total amount of energy consumed by the federal government comes from renewable sources; the Department of Defense claims 22 percent of that total, the biggest share of any agency.

- The Clean Power Plan will increase renewable energy more in the Midwestern states than anywhere else in the country because the region has the highest potential for wind and is also most dependent on coal.

- Geothermal energy is growing rapidly around the world. The US has approximately 3,700 MW of installed geothermal capacity and about 1,250 MW of geothermal power under development. The global geothermal power market is about 13,300 MW, with 12,500 MW of planned capacity across 82 countries. AES Premium Members have access to the 2016 Annual US & Global Geothermal Power Production Report.

- The US Department of Transportation, Amazon Web Services, and Paul Allen's Vulcan Inc. have pledged up to $40 million to help one city become the country's first "Smart City." It will fully integrate innovative technologies - self-driving cars, connected vehicles, and smart sensors - into its transportation network. Out of 78 applicants, the finalists are: Austin; Columbus; Denver; Kansas City, MO; Pittsburgh; Portland; and San Francisco.

- A group of cities in the US announced the launch of the Energy Secure Cities Coalition (ESCC) to shift their municipal fleets from petroleum-fueled vehicles to those powered by alternative fuels, electricity and natural gas. The participating cities are: Atlanta, Charlotte, Indianapolis, Orlando, Rochester, Sacramento, San Diego, and West Palm Beach.

- The US solar market is set to grow 119 percent in 2016. 16 GW of solar will be installed, more than doubling the record-breaking 7.3 GW installed in 2015.

- The US energy storage market had its best quarter and best year - 112 megawatts of energy storage capacity was deployed in the fourth quarter of 2015, bringing the annual total to 221 megawatts of storage capacity.
 

Courtesy of the American Energy Society

Does it matter that there might be 800,000 missing barrels of oil each day?

I got this from Eric Vettel, Ph.D. from the American Energy Society and I thought I would share it.

The world cannot account for 800,000 “missing barrels” of oil every day, the difference between the 1.9 million barrels global oil production and the roughly 1.1 million b/d of oil calculated as being in transit or in storage.

There are many explanations:

a) a production outage in Nigeria
b) a pipeline glitch in Kurdistan
c) a lot of it is in China in the form of stockpiles
d) India has some sitting in pipelines and in ships
e) a normal accounting deviation,
f) all of the above
g) none of the above; it's a myth - the missing barrels simply don’t exist

The better question is this: does it matter that there might be 800,000 missing barrels of oil each day?

A. Probably not, except that it is making the market nervous. One thing is certain: the nervous market won’t pause to reflect.

Large Renewable Procurement Results

Last week, the Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) announced the successful proposals submitted in the first round of the Large Renewable Procurement process (LRP1). 

What is significant about this announcement is the price.  The province has moved to a competitive bid process for renewable energy.  IESO reports that, for the wind projects selected, the weighted average price was 8.59 cents/kWh, and 15.67 cents/kWh for solar.

The full list of successful projects can be viewed here; while the Canadian Wind Energy press release regarding the announcement can be viewed here.

Information courtesy of Kevin R. Surette, WPD Canada

 

Wind power prices dropping below nuke re-build costs in Ontario

A great article on the Large Renewable Energy procurement process.  While you can argue the cost of nuclear, the trend regarding pricing is intriguing.  ORIGINAL article is by the Clean Air Alliance and located is at  http://www.cleanairalliance.org/wind-power-prices-dropping-below-nuke-re-build-costs-in-ontario/

Today Ontario’s Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) announced that it has signed five contracts with private sector companies for wind power at costs ranging from 6.45 to 10.55 cents per kWh.

According to Ontario Power Generation (OPG), the cost of electricity from a re-built Darlington Nuclear Station will be 7 to 8 cents per kWh. However, every nuclear project in Ontario’s history has gone massively over budget – on average by 2.5 times. If history repeats itself, the cost of electricity from re-built Darlington reactors will be 15 cents per kWh . That would make even solar power acquired through the new Large Renewable Procurement (LRP) process competitive with nuclear.

And, of course, solar and wind companies are on the hook for any cost overruns on their projects, unlike OPG which expects provincial electricity ratepayers and taxpayers to still pick up the tab for its inevitable cost overruns.

Also, renewable energy costs are projected to continue to fall rapidly so by the time the IESO undertakes its next LRP round a year from now, we will likely see even greater savings over costly and slow nuclear re-build projects. In fact, what the current LRP round has told us is that the Ontario government should be steering toward the off ramps for nuclear re-build projects as quickly as possible given the astonishing – and continuing -- decline in green energy prices.

If we are smart, we will combine energy efficiency and water power imports from Quebec with made-in-Ontario renewable energy to build a much more cost effective, responsive and responsible electricity system for Ontario.

Please pass this message on to your friends.

Angela Bischoff, Outreach Director

ECA & ESDM Report Related Questions

By Terry Lam, P.Eng

Q:  How does my facility show compliance with the MOECC standards? Is outdoor monitoring involved?

Compliance is demonstrated by preparing an Emissions Summary and Dispersion Modelling (ESDM) report meeting the requirements of O. Reg. 419/05. This report includes an estimation of the emissions released from the facility and predicts the off-property concentrations using a computer program called a “dispersion model.” The model results are compared against applicable standards to show compliance.  It is not practical to show compliance using off-property monitoring since this can only be done at a limited number of locations for a limited period of time and is quite expensive. Compliance must be demonstrated at all points off-property under a large range of meteorological conditions which necessitates the use of a model over a monitoring program. It should be noted that O. Reg. 419/05 considers a modelled or exceedance of a standard to have the same impact as a monitored or measured exceedance for most contaminants. 

Q:  How are emissions from my facility quantified? Will sampling and analysis be required?

A: There are several methods that might be used to estimate emissions. Site-specific sampling, while potentially providing the most accurate estimate, is also very expensive and can drive the cost of the approval project up substantially. Generally, more conservative estimates are made based on emission trends published in literature (called “emission factors”) if available. Emission factors are often derived from sampling results at similar sources. Emissions may also be estimated using engineering principles and process information, or a materials mass balance. The general approach is to start with the assessment with cheaper, but more conservative methods to estimate emissions and move towards more accurate methods if required. This approach helps ORTECH control the costs of the project. If source sampling is required, ORTECH maintains one of the largest and most experienced teams in Canada to provide assistance.